jt512 wrote:
We noted that the probability of a -19 SD event is about 1 / 10^80. Now, the Big Bang is estimated to have occurred 13.7 billion years ago. Now, even if 1 billion cams were produced every second since the Big Bang until now, "only" about 10^25 cams will have been produced. This is still
55 orders of magnitude less than the number of cams needed for us to expect to produce a single cam that would fail at -19 SD. So, since even on a cosmologic time scale, "eventually" no cam could fail at such a low load, it is certain that on a human time scale, no cam could fail.
In reply to:
If you crunch the numbers, it WILL happen to SOMEONE, guaranteed.
Well, I just did crunch them, and we saw that no, it will never happen to someone, guaranteed.
Conclusion: Under realistic assumptions, it is statistically impossible for a cam belonging to a population purported to have a 3-sigma breaking strength of 10 kN to break at 2 kN under normal use.
Jay
Hmm, because it is stats means no absolute should be used. the fact that the probabilty of a cam belonging to a population which has a 3signam breaking strength or 10 kN +/- 1.5kn failing a -19SD is absurdly low does not say it has not yet occured or it won't occur in our lifetime. it just extremely unlikely to happen.
