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Lebanon, the truth!!!
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overlord


Aug 19, 2006, 4:35 PM
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I agree with you about the problems of an internal investigation. When it comes to political investigation I agree with you 100%. The army however is a different story. The army as a body has no arm in politics, and has no interest in covering up its mistakes rather than fixing them. The entire military is entirely based on improving on mistakes. And the people who are encharged with carrying out these investigations are all millitary people, none of whom have any future political career to worry about or any other motivations other than the improvement of their army.

but the politicians who lead the country DO have political carreers to think about and if you really think about the problem, the army is just one of their tools. while the army migh want to improve itself, the politicians certanly dont want the mistakes revealed to the public eye (especially when they are at least partially responsible for them).

i never said finding a reliable external investigators in these case would be easy. in fact, i believe that if they were member of one particular organisation (even the un) the results would be no more credible than the internal investigation. ideally the team would consist of israeli, lebanese and outside members.

anyway, by 'anti israeli' and 'pro palestinian' do you mean really 'anti israeli' or just 'dares to criticize israel from time to time'? because the line between the two has become really blurred, especially in the US.


bigga


Aug 20, 2006, 12:18 AM
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Overlord. You are right, the army is also a political tool. But, as I'm sure it is probably in most countries, they are not closely enough connected for the politicians to force the military to Bullshi*. I guess you'd have to spend some time here to understand that. However a problem has come up here regarding exactly what you are refering to...
There have been some huge mess-ups in how this war was run, on the part of the prime minister and minister of defense, niether of which, for the first time in Israeli history, have any military experience, which is crazy when you live in this climate. These mess ups need investigating and the lessons learned. The people are the first to demand it. (Don't forget its a civilian army). And who is responsible for setting up this investigating body? Our minister of defense. And who does he choose to head up this team? His personal advisor... yes, the same one advising him during the time of the war. Alot of the blame lies at his doorstep and he is basically protecting his ass. Anyway, the country is in an upraor about it and I guarantee you it won't fly and will be made to be done properly. There's no other choice.

I mention this to say that I definitely know what you are talking about and it is a very real problem. Happily our military isn't as vulnerable to that problem. If it were our, military's effectiveness would go down the toilette which is something we can't afford to have happen. As it is we've seen how, at least in my oppinion, innept politicians who are above the army can already reduce its effectiveness quite noticably. Faults in the army are checked by the army and believe me that an honest check. Faults in the government are not always the same, but I believe in this case that it will have to be, because basically the entire populashing is demanding that it be. As a matter of self preservation we want to get to he bottom of this war, since there is a feeling that for Hezbollah, Iran and Syria this may have just been a warm up round. Therefore, for us also.


overlord


Aug 20, 2006, 1:16 PM
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There have been some huge mess-ups in how this war was run, on the part of the prime minister and minister of defense, niether of which, for the first time in Israeli history, have any military experience, which is crazy when you live in this climate. These mess ups need investigating and the lessons learned. The people are the first to demand it. (Don't forget its a civilian army). And who is responsible for setting up this investigating body? Our minister of defense. And who does he choose to head up this team? His personal advisor... yes, the same one advising him during the time of the war. Alot of the blame lies at his doorstep and he is basically protecting his ass. Anyway, the country is in an upraor about it and I guarantee you it won't fly and will be made to be done properly. There's no other choice.

i didnt know that (the part about the def.min. adviser leading the investigation), but it does serve perfectly to prove my point. and i really do hope the ppl make a big enough uproar to be heard.

b civilian army you mean non-proffesional, draftee army? i know israel has obligatory military service, but no army is civilian :wink:

In reply to:
I mention this to say that I definitely know what you are talking about and it is a very real problem. Happily our military isn't as vulnerable to that problem. If it were our, military's effectiveness would go down the toilette which is something we can't afford to have happen. As it is we've seen how, at least in my oppinion, innept politicians who are above the army can already reduce its effectiveness quite noticably. Faults in the army are checked by the army and believe me that an honest check. Faults in the government are not always the same, but I believe in this case that it will have to be, because basically the entire populashing is demanding that it be. As a matter of self preservation we want to get to he bottom of this war, since there is a feeling that for Hezbollah, Iran and Syria this may have just been a warm up round. Therefore, for us also.

EVERY army is vulnerable to politicians comming in and messing things up and then trying to cover their behinds with every means neccesary. i dounbt that your generals would really went ahead with this war (or conduct it in such a manner) at this time if they didnt get some 'sugestions' from your politicians. and they not having any military experience might have something to do with their zeal with which they conducted this war. maybe they wanted to prove something, who knows...

well, maybe it was a warmup round for hezbollah, but i really do hope the large(ish) injection of troops and the demostration of willigness from israel to make it an all-out war will be enough to finally disarm them (im certain lebanon doesnt wish for such a conflict to occur again). dont get me wrong, i still think the war was a bad idea, im just hoping it will have at least some good results. as for iran/syria, i do not really believe that they are a real threat at this time. at least not while there is still a significant number of US troops deployed in iraq.


reno


Aug 20, 2006, 3:46 PM
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actually, no. but that would really amaze me in these cases.

the objective of every army i know of after making a mistake is first to cover it up and then to protect its personnel from legal harm. thats why i wouldnt believe any non-guilty verdict from an internal investigation. or would you believe a non-guilty verdict that a murder suspect judged himself?

thats why you need (and have) outside investigators for such cases.

My point is that if you're not going to trust an internal investigation that finds them innocent, then you can't trust one that finds them guilty, either.

and you base your loginc on what??

you need to understand that every accused has the wish to be found not-guilty. so if he were to conduct the investigation and trial himself he would probably be found not-guilty regardless of him being guilty or not. so a non-guilty verdict in such a case doesnt prove anything.

but if he found himself guilty, then you can only assume that he really was because no sane man/organization would confess to crimes they didnt commit (lets leave reasons like saving loved ones from persecutions and such 'exotic' reasons out of the picture).

My question is this:

Doesn't it seem intellectually dishonest to say "I don't trust their own investigation unless they find themselves guilty, in which case I will trust it."

You can't pass judgement about the integrity of the investigation based on the outcome... Approving only when the ruling is to your liking.

If that were so, then why have a legal system at all?


bigga


Aug 20, 2006, 4:11 PM
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Hi one last time.

When I said civilian army, what I mean is, since israel has such a small population during a time of war the reservists make up the major force of the army. There are simply not enough enlisted men. And in Israel the reservists are literally the entire country up to the age of about 42. So most of the people fighting a war are in general, engineers, bankers, computer programmers, shop keepers, security guards etc etc, ie civilians. In this war, for example, I was called up (though they let me go home to attend a few lectures), my brother was called up (owns a multi-media bussiness), and in fact probably half the men I know.

From finnishing the army every combat soldier puts in about a month per year of reserve duty. Non combat soldiers put in less. But our army is quite literally a civilian army.

Any army is vulnerable to politicians because it is from the politicians that the army gets its 'go-ahead' to do things. In that respect you are 100% correct. The military basically comes to the government with a list of possible courses of action with all their positives and negatives, and the government choses, and in so doing the political body really can (and in this case in my opinion, did) screw things up. Besides for that though, there is no reall political influence. For example the MD, as I said, has made a mock of a team to investigate problems from the ranks of prime minister and down, including military. The military not being satisfied with this, can (and is) conducting its own investigation within the military. Only problem is the army can't investigate the government so its investigation will be limited to the army itself.

And just so that you know the type of mess ups we are talking about. No one in the country besides for the arab population (not including bedouin and Druz (who are not arab)) and a very very few people in the extreme extreme left think it was a mistake to go to war.(Interesting to note that Israeli Bedouin and Druzim were mostly in favour, especialy Druz) What people are questioning is the way we went to war.
I'll give you some examples of possible problems : The previous head of the army believed that Sharon's 'disengagement' plan was dangerous to the security of Israel. How did Sharon deal with this? Like a mafia man, he had him replaced with a general who didn't think this way.
This new and current head of the army was taken, for the first time in Israeli history, from the air force of which he was the head. Many people (including me) were very skeptic of this since our airforce is quite seperated from the rest of the army. It has a bigger budget (more expensive toys), different uniform, etc. And the problem with this could be seen in the handling of the war. Besides for a few comandos, the entire first week of the war was fought entirely from the air. He just used his airforce. Which turned out to be a huge (and obvious with 20/20 hindsight) mistake. Not when you are fighting guerillas.
Also, there was no creativity in this war. As crazy as that sounds Israel has always needed to use very creative tactics to win its wars and win them as quickly as possible. Which is another problem. Israel is not built for long wars. And we can't drag them out like we did this time.
In my humble oppinion, Israel should have hit hard from the very beginning. With ground forces as well. And finnished it as soon as possible. It would have been better for both countries. We once had alot of Hizbollah fighters cornered in a village, no one else there. We gave them an ultimatum. Iether they surender or we level the village. They didn't surrender and we didn't level the village. In the end we ended up going in and getting them by hand, after which they all end up dead anyway since they fight to the end. But we also lost a few soldiers. In situations like that we should live up to our word and level the village on them, rather than lose our own soldiers just to save at the end of the day, property. Property in the middle of Hezbollah terretory to add to that. I don't think the choices we made putting our soldiers at risk just to save property is justifiable.

Anyway, these are some of the problems not all, and I hope and believe they will all be dealt with.

This has been taking a bit too long, better get back to my studying. Thank you for the discussion

Allon


overlord


Aug 20, 2006, 6:46 PM
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thank for clearing that up. but i did read some statistic that claimed that 55% of israeli public is (was) against the war. ill see if i can dig it up.

In reply to:
My question is this:

Doesn't it seem intellectually dishonest to say "I don't trust their own investigation unless they find themselves guilty, in which case I will trust it."

You can't pass judgement about the integrity of the investigation based on the outcome... Approving only when the ruling is to your liking.

If that were so, then why have a legal system at all?

it isnt intellectually dishonest, its logical.

we have a legal system to avoid such 'investigations'.

would you believe, say, a bank robber who would investigate hes own crime and found himself not-quilty? would you believe him if he found himself not-guilty? though the first does not prove that he IS guilty, it doesnt really convince anybody that he is not; while the second should be a clear indication that he, in fact, is guilty. or if the BOD of enron (or parmalat or any similar case) investigated their own actions and found nothing fraudulent about them.

that is why we do have a legal system; to provide at least somewhat credible judgements by having an outside and (ideally) objective investigation.


reno


Aug 20, 2006, 7:25 PM
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that is why we do have a legal system; to provide at least somewhat credible judgements by having an outside and (ideally) objective investigation.

That's fine, and I agree, but my point remains: You can't have it both ways, and you should thus not agree with ANY findings from an internal investigation... guilty or not.

Though, to be perfectly honest, I have to admire an organization that does investigate itself and find fault... Like the Internal Affairs division of a police force that says "We found these three police officers have violated our standards, policies, and laws, and we're going to fire them." Being able to admit your own shortcomings is something many people and organizations find difficult.

It is possible to break standards of an organization and NOT break the law at the same time. In such cases, there is no need for the legal system, as no law is broken.


bigga


Aug 20, 2006, 7:42 PM
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Hi overlord,
Please try dig up where you read that. From where I'm sitting that sounds quite impossible. At least four independant polls have been done since the war started, Issued by different bodies, some newspapers and some TV channels. If I remember correctly ( and if I am wrong I am still definitely within the ballpark ), it is around 70-80 percent in favour. Within those not in favour is obviously included all of the arab population.
If I would see such a poll now saying 55% against to be honest its truth in my eyes would be highly questionable, in light of the fact that so many published indepent polls have shown the exact opposite and in light of the fact that I don't know a single person who is against it, and I keep friends both among the right and the left. What I do know is that the story is quite different in a pole done asking Israeli's whether the country achieved its aims. (which is why most people are also expecting round two) Perhaps that is the poll you saw.


overlord


Aug 20, 2006, 9:13 PM
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that is why we do have a legal system; to provide at least somewhat credible judgements by having an outside and (ideally) objective investigation.

That's fine, and I agree, but my point remains: You can't have it both ways, and you should thus not agree with ANY findings from an internal investigation... guilty or not.

Though, to be perfectly honest, I have to admire an organization that does investigate itself and find fault... Like the Internal Affairs division of a police force that says "We found these three police officers have violated our standards, policies, and laws, and we're going to fire them." Being able to admit your own shortcomings is something many people and organizations find difficult.

It is possible to break standards of an organization and NOT break the law at the same time. In such cases, there is no need for the legal system, as no law is broken.

well, internal affair estblished its credibility by finding and reporting crimes and breaks of standards so now both outcomes are believable. but would that be so if it only ever found the 'accused' not guilty?

why you cant really question if they found themselves quitly is the the fact that their 'big goal' is to find themselves not guilty. so if they do find themselves guilty you must believe them, because not-guilty is clearly the preffered result in the vast majority of cases.

well, in cases where no law was broken, but internal standards are, internal investigations AND finding guilt is clearly in the best interest of the organization because that way it migh improve itself (even if they have to remove the quilty part) without much suffering.

bigga, i cant find the exact one right now, but i guess it was derived from such articles as these two.
http://www.haaretz.com/...n/spages/749604.html
http://www.jpost.com/...JPArticle%2FShowFull

In reply to:
Only 39 percent of the respondents backed the cabinet's decision to expand the ground operation. Another 26 percent favored continuing the fighting in its current form, but stepping up diplomatic efforts, while 28 percent advocated an immediate cease-fire and a diplomatic agreement.

While this is the first poll conducted by Haaretz since the fighting began, a comparison with polls by other organizations reveals a marked drop in support for the government. Olmert, for instance, enjoyed a 75 percent support rating early in the war, but the Haaretz poll found that only 48 percent currently approve his functioning, while 40 percent expressed dissatisfaction with it. Peretz, who enjoyed a 65 percent approval rating early in the war, won the approval of only 37 percent of respondents in the Haaretz poll, while 51 percent disapproved of his functioning. The figures for both men are now about the same as they were before the war began.

In reply to:
The percentage of people supporting a broad ground operation to push Hizbullah guerrillas beyond the range of short-range rockets fell to 64% from 73%, the poll said, indicating a growing - though still a minority - public desire for diplomatic initiatives.

both articles are pretty old (article 1 aug. 13th, article 2 aug 11) they do show the support falling (its kindof noticable even in such a short timespan; support of broad operation was 64% on aug 11 and probably less on aug 13 since only 65% support either the increase of activity or just continuing the conflict (so we can make a guess that broad ground operations are supported by less than that, though you compute the exact numnber with this data; its between 39 and 65 AND the % of those supporting diplomacy rose from 'a minority' to 28%)) and olmert support dropped below 48%. so it is quite probably that a later article would show a further fall of support.


bigga


Aug 20, 2006, 10:45 PM
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I am placing here a quote from Reuters quoting a poll taken by Yediot Acharonot, One of israels leading newspapers :

" JERUSALEM, July 18 (Reuters) - A vast majority of Israelis support the country's offensive in Lebanon aimed at crippling Hizbollah and many also believe the guerrilla group's leader should be assassinated, a poll showed on Tuesday.

The survey in the mass circulation Yedioth Ahronoth daily showed 86 percent of Israelis believed the army's attacks on Lebanon were justified.

It said 58 percent of Israelis believed the offensive should continue until the army killed Hizbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Only 17 percent said Israel should stop fighting and start negotiations."

That was 18th July, and here is a quote from Ha'aretz Newspaper, also a top selling newspaper in Israel dated 3rd August, :

"....a Gallup Poll a few days ago, 80 percent of the respondents said that Israel's action in Lebanon was justified..."

There are more polls done mainly by the newspapers. I would tell you to go look at the websites, but if your browser doesn't support hebrew text it may be problematic. There is an online english version, just a mission to search. Anyone most of the poll results are very simillar

Note also that in those against the war is obviously included the entire arab opinion.
Of course you are right, as the war went on more and more people believed that we had gone far enough militarily and that it was time to push diplomatically (though in no poll I have seen was it a majority). That I believe is only natural.

What also makes these sources questionable is the fact the decision to expand the ground operation was voted in unanimously.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/31/mideast-diplomacy.html
Where was that article you quoted taken from?

Chow


overlord


Aug 21, 2006, 7:45 AM
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well, both of my articles were from israeli newspapers (i posted the links before the quotes).

and i have also found some from july 20th or so that had about 80% support but i dismissed it because it was too old for this discussion.


timstich


Aug 22, 2006, 6:43 AM
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As always bigga, it's good to hear from you. I remember ipsofacto agreed with me on that.

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