|
|
|
|
adnix
Dec 27, 2004, 1:55 PM
Post #1 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: May 20, 2003
Posts: 584
|
OK. I got interested in this issue when we were discussing the importance of roping up. Any comments?
There are 300.000 climbers in the US. 24 deaths every year. One out of 12500 people.
Estimated 350.000 sky divers, 30 dead. Roughly the same number.
There are 300.000.000 people in the US.
Alcohol kills 80.000. One out of 4000 people.
Highway crashes kill 40.000 people. One out of 8000 people
Flu kills 36000 people.
AIDS kills 15.000 people a year in the US. One out of 20.000 people.
Let's estimate 40% of the people smoke. Lung cancer kills 160.000 people every year. 80% of lung cancer is caused by smoking. One out of 930 people. Smoking is 12 times more dangerous than climbing.
Guns kill 30.000 people every year. 50% are homicides. 55000 people die due to some kind of violence. Pollution kills between 200.000 and 570.000 people. 350,000 people die each year of inactivity-related diseases.
I would suppose climbing is rather safe. Prove me otherwise if you wish.
Extreme alpinism is a different story, of course. If you make the summit of K2, you have statistically 11.6 percent chance of not making back. Annapurna 7.6 and 8000+ mountains on average 2.3 percent. On Russian roulette you have a 16.7 percent chance. There was a survey made in 2000 that proves these figures.
|
|
|
|
|
tetons
Dec 27, 2004, 2:03 PM
Post #2 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Oct 7, 2004
Posts: 81
|
There are 300k climbers in the US? Really? I sorta doubt it.
Some years ago I saw an article which compared climbing, in a safety sense, to piloting a small single-engine plane, say something like a Cessna 172. Sounds about right -- I think stats on # of climbers are skewed. Interesting question in any case. Stay safe, keep climbing.
|
|
|
|
|
napoleon_in_rags
Dec 27, 2004, 2:30 PM
Post #3 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Oct 31, 2004
Posts: 586
|
You been to the Gunks recently? I find it easy to believe that there are 300K climbers in the U.S. Last Census showed there are 320 Million. So 1 in every 1000 is a climber. Makes sense.
|
|
|
|
|
adnix
Dec 27, 2004, 2:43 PM
Post #4 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: May 20, 2003
Posts: 584
|
In reply to: There are 300k climbers in the US? Really? I sorta doubt it. |
|
|
|
|
anykineclimb
Dec 27, 2004, 3:32 PM
Post #5 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Mar 30, 2003
Posts: 3593
|
you can make statistics say anything. don't trust em.
In reply to: Guns kill 30.000 people every year |
|
|
|
|
static_endurance
Dec 27, 2004, 3:33 PM
Post #6 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Nov 10, 2004
Posts: 119
|
1 in every 12500, eh? That's not bad at all. One would think from crappy media that it would be higher.
Where did you happen to find the climbing stats? I'd be interested to see the numbers for ice climbing and extreme alpinism as well.
|
|
|
|
|
j_ung
Dec 27, 2004, 3:39 PM
Post #7 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Nov 21, 2003
Posts: 18690
|
This seems like a pretty big generalization. Sure driving is more dangerous than, say toproping at the gym, but what about if you're style of choice is freesoloing? You allude to this with your analysis of high altitude mountaineering -- why not for other styles? Surely, my chances of surviving a day of trad climbing are different from my chances of surviving a day of sport cragging. To just say, "climbing is relatively safe," ignores that variable. Good thread, though. :)
|
|
|
|
|
marcel
Dec 27, 2004, 3:40 PM
Post #8 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Jul 30, 2002
Posts: 523
|
When I owned an indoor climbing gym, my insurance company rated indoor climbing the same as bowling. When I bought a tredmill for the gym the company raised my rates saying the tredmill was much more dangerous than the climbing wall. Stats can tell you just about anything, but insurnace company have a good handle on the stats. After all that's how they make money. :D
|
|
|
|
|
sarcat
Dec 27, 2004, 4:14 PM
Post #9 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Jan 22, 2004
Posts: 1560
|
I would agree that insurance company stats are pretty spot on. Interesting OP however.
I know I'm gonna bite it on my I-15 commute through Utah County one day. Maybe I should start free-soloing. Get it over quicker.
|
|
|
|
|
adnix
Dec 27, 2004, 4:20 PM
Post #10 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: May 20, 2003
Posts: 584
|
In reply to: To just say, "climbing is relatively safe," ignores that variable. Good thread, though. :)
In reply to: Where did you happen to find the climbing stats? I'd be interested to see the numbers for ice climbing and extreme alpinism as well.
http://www.americanalpineclub.org/...publications-acc.asp
I've noticed most 10+ year alpinists have lost friends in the mountains. For ice climbers the situation isn't the same. I don't know the number of alpinists or ice climbers but you can count the number of accidents in the book if you wish. After reading some reports I would conclude that more than 50% of these 24 deaths occured in alpine climbing. And the number of alpine climbers compared to sport climbers...
If you want statistics for extreme alpinism you might want to research Patagonian peaks for example.
|
|
|
|
|
dingus
Dec 27, 2004, 4:41 PM
Post #11 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Dec 16, 2002
Posts: 17398
|
this post was highly rated by my peers
|
|
|
|
|
dirtineye
Dec 27, 2004, 5:05 PM
Post #12 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Mar 29, 2003
Posts: 5590
|
Climbing is as dangerous, or as safe, as we choose to make it.
|
|
|
|
|
glowering
Dec 27, 2004, 5:26 PM
Post #13 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Oct 13, 2002
Posts: 386
|
Interesting
Inactivity: 350,000 deaths a year
Pollution: 200,000 to 570,000
Lung cancer: 160,000
Alcohol: 80,000
Car accidents: 40,000
Flu: 36,000
Guns: 30,000
Aids: 15,000
Terrorism: 300 (approximately over the last 10 years)
What do these numbers make you think about our national priorities and where the most risk is?
Or personal priorities?
Personaly I would've though car accidents were the biggest risk but I think my new years resolutions are going to include getting more aerobic excersice, and air and water filters for my home.
|
|
|
|
|
curt
Dec 27, 2004, 5:54 PM
Post #14 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Aug 27, 2002
Posts: 18275
|
In reply to: You know, driving statistics are meaningless when that other maniac comes barreling through the center divider and smashes into you head on. And too, 'death's per 1000' is about the least useful piece of information at a climber's disposal when running it out over must not fall terrain. I'm sorry, I find these statistic quotes useless for the subject at hand. Deaths per 1000 is not a useful measure of my risk, of my impending doom, or my potential for error. Comparing free solo deaths to roped climbing deaths, per 1000, is also less than useful...... DMT
Quite right, but statistics aren't meant to tell us anything about an individual--only about populations of individuals. Once you accept that idea, statistics can then either be meaningful or not, depending on how they are presented. I do not consider the initial data above to be particularly valid or interesting.
Curt
|
|
|
|
|
dingus
Dec 27, 2004, 6:05 PM
Post #15 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Dec 16, 2002
Posts: 17398
|
In reply to: Quite right, but statistics aren't meant to tell us anything about an individual--only about populations of individuals. Once you accept that idea, statistics can then either be meaningful or not, depending on how they are presented. Curt
Well, these sorts of stats were used to suggest that a helmet doesn't make me a safer climber. Nor a rope for that matter. I don't find that use of stats to be particularly useful.
The helmet thread in particular should include a link to the recent Josh head injury death.
I've hit my head, hard, during a lead fall, this year. I was wearing a helmet. The helmet did not cause my fall. I did not take on risks I would have otherwise avoided sans helmet. I fell from a crux I'd done before, unexpected, hit a ledge and flipped. It was a bad place to fall. A head injury could have rendered it fatal.
The number of auto deaths per 1000 is about as useful to me as knowing the total number of spark plug gaskets produced in Texs in the year 1968.
DMT
|
|
|
|
|
curt
Dec 27, 2004, 6:10 PM
Post #16 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Aug 27, 2002
Posts: 18275
|
In reply to: In reply to: Quite right, but statistics aren't meant to tell us anything about an individual--only about populations of individuals. Once you accept that idea, statistics can then either be meaningful or not, depending on how they are presented. Curt I've hit my head, hard, during a lead fall, this year. I was wearing a helmet. The helmet did not cause my fall. I did not take on risks I would have otherwise avoided sans helmet. I fell from a crux I'd done before, unexpected, hit a ledge and flipped. It was a bad place to fall. A head injury could have rendered it fatal..... DMT
Anecdotal stories and statistics are not the same thing. I don't recall seeing any real statistics in the "helmet" thread.
Curt
|
|
|
|
|
dingus
Dec 27, 2004, 6:14 PM
Post #17 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Dec 16, 2002
Posts: 17398
|
In reply to: Anecdotal stories and statistics are not the same thing. I don't recall seeing any real statistics in the "helmet" thread. Curt
Exactly what I am driving at...
DMT
|
|
|
|
|
napoleon_in_rags
Dec 27, 2004, 6:32 PM
Post #18 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Oct 31, 2004
Posts: 586
|
The most interesting thing about this thread is insurance companies find treadmills more dangerous than TR. Is it because of Heart Attacks? Freak injuries similiar to Tractor Accidents? Insurance agencies do nothing if the stats aren't matching.
|
|
|
|
|
climb_plastic
Dec 27, 2004, 6:34 PM
Post #19 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Sep 24, 2003
Posts: 706
|
I'm not going to look at climb that I think is dangerous and say, "only 1 in 20000 people die climbing so I think this is going to be safe, or "I don't need a helmet because only 1 in 1,000,000 hit their heads and die." If you look at a climb and you think it's dangerous then it probably is, and if you think there is a good chance to fall and hit your head then you should use a helmet. You can't use statistics and use them to determine if the climbing you do is dangerous or if a helmet is a good idea or not. That number is useless to me on determining if the climbing I'm going to do is dangerous. The best thing to do is use common sense.
|
|
|
|
|
beanricecheese
Dec 27, 2004, 6:44 PM
Post #20 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: May 1, 2004
Posts: 47
|
Stats and calcs that comes from them are lots of times bullshit. For example, onthe history channel they had "Count down to armageddon" and I watched about 30 minutes of it... it was interesting as most the stuff on the history channel is. So, anyways, according to the show... "every morning you wake up there is a 1 in 20,000 chance that the earther will be hit by a asteroid at least 1 mile in diameter." So my Grandma who is 86 should have lived through a mile wide asteroid hitting the earth at least once... workin on twice.
Regardless, climbing can be as safe as you want it to be with the usual chance of bad luck.
|
|
|
|
|
marcel
Dec 27, 2004, 7:23 PM
Post #21 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Jul 30, 2002
Posts: 523
|
In reply to: The most interesting thing about this thread is insurance companies find treadmills more dangerous than TR. Is it because of Heart Attacks? Freak injuries similiar to Tractor Accidents? Insurance agencies do nothing if the stats aren't matching.
Treadmills are more dangerous becasue people get a lunched off them and fall, which results in broken bones and twisted ankles. :lol:
|
|
|
|
|
eastvillage
Dec 27, 2004, 8:05 PM
Post #22 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Sep 14, 2004
Posts: 262
|
Besides the risk we take while actually climbing, we are also members of those other groups at the same time.
We drive all the time, have a few drinks, might get cancer etc. So if you factor all those stats into the risk factors for climbing, then the overall risk factor would rise considerably. So, yes, climbing is dangerous.
But also worth it.
|
|
|
|
|
collegekid
Dec 27, 2004, 8:27 PM
Post #23 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Jul 7, 2002
Posts: 1852
|
Most people are dying due to inactivity, poor nutrition, and just not caring for themselves in general; Climbing motivates me to stay active and healthy; therefore climbing is much safer than not climbing.:)
|
|
|
|
|
crag
Dec 27, 2004, 8:32 PM
Post #24 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Jan 29, 2003
Posts: 623
|
In reply to: you can make statistics say anything. don't trust em. In reply to: Guns kill 30.000 people every year If thats true, pens and pencils cause spelling errors. :twisted:
and a spoon made Rosie O'donnell fat
|
|
|
|
|
nthusiastj
Dec 27, 2004, 9:09 PM
Post #25 of 73
(6364 views)
Shortcut
Registered: Sep 3, 2002
Posts: 1994
|
In reply to: In reply to: you can make statistics say anything. don't trust em. In reply to: Guns kill 30.000 people every year If thats true, pens and pencils cause spelling errors. :twisted: and a spoon made Rosie O'donnell fat
Rosie's not fat. She's phat...
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
