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thorne
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Sep 15, 2006, 2:33 PM
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Since Arrettinator started a new thread about "possible" voting irregularities (what's that Ryan? Ten new threads? Fifteen?), I'd thought I'd beat another dead horse. There's some interesting news coming out this week, regarding oil concerns. From the Seattle Times: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/..._oilconsumers14.html
In reply to: WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon... ... the overall price drop is expected to continue, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead. Here's why: For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand... Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create shortages. Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria etc., etc., etc.... Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil.... Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're seeking profits.... But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing.... With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal evidence of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil. All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil... Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon. Most Americans see this as a positive development... unless your primary concern is the upcoming election. Looking at the bigger picture: http://www.forbes.com/...4autofacescan01.html
In reply to: Cool heads and science will keep the industrialized world humming along in the 21st century. That was the timbre of speeches given by Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people ) Chief Executive Rex Tillersonand Abdullah Jum'ah, CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil (Aramco). The two addressed some of the planet's key oil-market executives and functionaries, meeting in Vienna this week. Jum'ah painted a somewhat rosy picture of the world's energy supply. The Aramco chief said that his firm's technology reveals that producers have only tapped a mere 18% of the total supply of crude petroleum. He threw down a gauntlet to the oil industry, exhorting it to step up efforts to "leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground." All the more reason to resist such urges toward erecting trade barriers: The Saudi CEO maintained that there is the potential of four and a half trillion barrels in reserves, which he called sufficient to power the world -- at current levels of consumption -- for 140 years. And here's something interesting I recently came across. http://www.radford.edu/...lreservehistory.html
In reply to: • 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages. • 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124). • 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market. • 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply." • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation." • 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added). • 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased. • 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said. • 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain. • 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918. • 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain. • 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply) • 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970. • 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.") • 1973 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics. • 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range). • 1979 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics. • 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels • 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels • 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels. SSDD - Same story, different decade. Have a nice day, everyone. :D
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tradman
Sep 15, 2006, 2:48 PM
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Karl Baba to thread! Karl Baba to thread immediately!
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epoch
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Sep 15, 2006, 2:56 PM
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Why is it that some things that definately deserve a trophy recognition are posted in community, where they aren't allowed... Interesting insight none the less............
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madriver
Sep 15, 2006, 4:34 PM
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so what....solve the problem. So in another 5-10 years we hit the same wall again? Another middle east crisis, another pipeline problem, continued issues with regards to global warming. Solve the eproblem, replace our dependance on fossil fuels. Just like the 70's, once we got over the initial shock of gas lines and price hikes, we continued on with petroleum combustion technology that does NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM. This is the issue of the next decade Thorne.....
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blondgecko
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Sep 15, 2006, 11:41 PM
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So.... As long as it doesn't run out in your lifetime, it's all good, right Thorne? Cut all the research funding on alternatives - we've got a war to fight! That's much more important.
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blonde_loves_bolts
Sep 15, 2006, 11:43 PM
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I guess the only question now is, will gas prices drop to $1.15/gallon before this year's midterms or just before the 2008 Presidential election?
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 12:40 AM
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In reply to: so what....solve the problem. So in another 5-10 years we hit the same wall again? Another middle east crisis.... OK, I gotta ask this question that has been bugging me for a while: Does anyone seriously believe that middle eastern oil producing countries will cut off the supply of oil to the US? Seriously... do you think this is possible?
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blonde_loves_bolts
Sep 16, 2006, 12:48 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: so what....solve the problem. So in another 5-10 years we hit the same wall again? Another middle east crisis.... OK, I gotta ask this question that has been bugging me for a while: Does anyone seriously believe that middle eastern oil producing countries will cut off the supply of oil to the US? Seriously... do you think this is possible? As Antonia would say, It is possible... http://nic0lesullivan.org/antonia1.jpg
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angry
Sep 16, 2006, 1:14 AM
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All I know is I'm going to appreciate cheap gas more, by burning a lot of it!! No solution but I'll keep my same gas budget and travel 2.5 times more often!! Zion on the weekend motherfuckers!!!
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camhead
Sep 16, 2006, 1:23 AM
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hey thorne, care to place a bet on whether gas will be at $1.15/gal within six months?
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 2:38 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: Seriously... do you think this is possible? As Antonia would say, It is possible... And just what effect would that have on THIER economy? While some of us might not care for their social structure or ideological beliefs, Middle Eastern oil barons are not suicidal. They pay people for that.
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madriver
Sep 16, 2006, 3:05 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: so what....solve the problem. So in another 5-10 years we hit the same wall again? Another middle east crisis.... OK, I gotta ask this question that has been bugging me for a while: Does anyone seriously believe that middle eastern oil producing countries will cut off the supply of oil to the US? Seriously... do you think this is possible? ...solve the prroblem and it doesn't matter if they do or not....dooooh!!!
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bobd1953
Sep 16, 2006, 3:35 AM
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The original post just shows how fucking dumb Americans are! Continue on...
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blonde_loves_bolts
Sep 16, 2006, 4:27 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: Seriously... do you think this is possible? As Antonia would say, It is possible... And just what effect would that have on THIER economy? So everything that goes on in the Middle East is motivated by traditional economics?
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zozo
Sep 16, 2006, 4:48 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: Seriously... do you think this is possible? As Antonia would say, It is possible... And just what effect would that have on THIER economy? So everything that goes on in the Middle East is motivated by traditional economics? With the new China and India and Malaysian economies we have lost our consumer power Reno, we are not the only game in town anymore. Dont be suprised if in a few years China will be able to outbid us for whatever is left because they own a good chunk of our debt.
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 4:54 AM
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In reply to: So everything that goes on in the Middle East is motivated by traditional economics? Not at all. Ideology plays a role, as it does everywhere else. But when you consider who the largest user of oil is, and then consider the options that user has instead of Middle East oil, it's not hard to see that if Iran, Iraq, Saudi, et al were to shut off the spigot, it'd hurt them every bit as much as it hurts us. And, like I said, they may be crazy, but they ain't stupid or suicidal. Shutting down oil to the US would serve only to cripple the economy of the country that shut us out. It's a supply/demand thing, and we're the ones making the demands. We can get our oil from places OTHER THAN Iran, if we so choose. But, despite the emergence of India, China, etc. as growing economies, we're still the biggest user around. Stopping sales to us is just bad economic policy. And ideology don't pay the rent, ya dig?
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 4:58 AM
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In reply to: With the new China and India and Malaysian economies we have lost our consumer power Reno, we are not the only game in town anymore. Zozo, you ought to do some research.... the US consumes nearly three times as much oil as China does.
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zozo
Sep 16, 2006, 5:01 AM
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For now maybe, they are expected to catch and surpass us in 10 years and so is India. Plus like I said they own so much of our debt that the value of our dollar will soon be dependent on what the Chinease decide to do with it. Smoke that research.
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 11:50 AM
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In reply to: For now maybe, they are expected to catch and surpass us in 10 years and so is India. I doubt that will happen.
In reply to: Plus like I said they own so much of our debt that the value of our dollar will soon be dependent on what the Chinease decide to do with it. Also doubtful. Other countries investing in the US dollar is nothing new.... been going on for years and years.
In reply to: Smoke that research. I doubt my computer screen will smoke very well, so I'll just have a cigar instead, mmmkay? (Avo Signatore, if you're wondering.)
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angry
Sep 16, 2006, 1:56 PM
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As I stated earlier, I would love cheap gas again. If I was told I could get 1.15 gas for life, and all I had to do was kill someone....I'd consider it. The problem I see is what it will do to the automotive market. With high gas prices, there's a lot of emphasis toward more efficient cars. Now I don't think hybrids are the answer just yet, same goes for the CNG cars. But hey, they are a step in the right direction. If gas drops, the SUV's will rise again. Consumers quickly forget. It will be funny though, when prices rise again (and they will rise) seeing all the SUV drivers reaching deep into their pockets just to drive the kids to soccer practice. Even better than last time, this time, they should have known better.
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 6:21 PM
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In reply to: The problem I see is what it will do to the automotive market. With high gas prices, there's a lot of emphasis toward more efficient cars. Now I don't think hybrids are the answer just yet, same goes for the CNG cars. But hey, they are a step in the right direction. I think this is pretty accurate. One of the often overlooked benefits of the recent increase in oil prices is the big push toward more fuel efficient cars and automobiles. I doubt that we'd have seen such advances in electrics, hybrids, alternate fuel vehicles, etc. if we still had $1.50/gallon. Amazing thing, the free market.... left to it's own devices, it usually works out for the best in the long run.
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madriver
Sep 16, 2006, 6:34 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: The problem I see is what it will do to the automotive market. With high gas prices, there's a lot of emphasis toward more efficient cars. Now I don't think hybrids are the answer just yet, same goes for the CNG cars. But hey, they are a step in the right direction. I think this is pretty accurate. One of the often overlooked benefits of the recent increase in oil prices is the big push toward more fuel efficient cars and automobiles. I doubt that we'd have seen such advances in electrics, hybrids, alternate fuel vehicles, etc. if we still had $1.50/gallon. Amazing thing, the free market.... left to it's own devices, it usually works out for the best in the long run. how is our continued dependance on fossil fuels "best in the long run". This is the problem...complaincancy. Prices fluctuate to meet market demand and consumer tolerance...slove the problem. Your premise that higher prices lead to new technologies is fine....get it up to $5 a gallon and solve the problem!!! When prices come down after pushing our tolerance with post Katrina gouging, we become tolerant again. A continued cycle since the 70's. The problem is oil...plain and simple....we need to ween our economy and our transportation infrastruction off of this drug.
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reno
Sep 16, 2006, 7:25 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: Amazing thing, the free market.... left to it's own devices, it usually works out for the best in the long run. how is our continued dependance on fossil fuels "best in the long run". This is the problem...complaincancy. Prices fluctuate to meet market demand and consumer tolerance...slove the problem. Your premise that higher prices lead to new technologies is fine....get it up to $5 a gallon and solve the problem!!! Mad, what do you think that would do to the prices of electric/hybrid/AFV autos? It's expensive right now to get a Prius.... if the $5/gallon scenario you describe comes to being, that will create a much greater demand for hybrids. Increased demand + steady supply = high prices. LEAVE THE MARKET ALONE.... it will sort itself out. Always has.
In reply to: When prices come down after pushing our tolerance with post Katrina gouging, we become tolerant again. A continued cycle since the 70's. The problem is oil...plain and simple....we need to ween our economy and our transportation infrastruction off of this drug. Yes, Karl, we know. ;) But wanting it to be so and making it so are two different things. There's no panacea that we can use to make us totally free from oil. Ever. It will ALWAYS be needed. Wanting to wean the US from oil is a pipe dream (no pun intended.) Won't happen. But we can reduce, and that's what's happening now.
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