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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 3:27 PM
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In reply to: Oil is about to peak and get more expensive. The US wants to be sitting on the second largest reserves when oil gets tight. We want to make sure that Iraq oil will head to the US. Right now places like Iran are making deals with China for oil supply. Karl
As for sitting on reserves, we already are. It's just that the libs seem to have a problem with us wanting to drill for our own oil up in Alaska, or in the Gulf, or in Texas... It would appear that we're "evil incarnant" if we drill our own, and/or if we buy it from the Middle East. Last time I checked, tankers weren't being flown in from Uranus!
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 3:32 PM
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In reply to: Which is it, is it going to peak OR get more expensive..?
He's talking about production peak.
If I were you, I'd delete that last post asap.
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 3:47 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: Which is it, is it going to peak OR get more expensive..? He's talking about production peak. If I were you, I'd delete that last post asap. |
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 4:00 PM
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Tim,
Please explain why NY Crude (which was $10.35/barrel in late '98) has recently been as high as $62.50/barrel.
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 4:14 PM
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In reply to: Tim, Please explain why NY Crude (which was $10.35/barrel in late '98) has recently been as high as $62.50/barrel.
The issue at hand is one of supply & demand... Those with the supply, can demand!
Our own oil fields can produce the quantities that we need, and OPEC knows this, but since we've just begun the 10 year process of speculating/drilling/piping/etc, OPEC knows that they have to make hay while the sun is still shinning!
In reality, as much as we all hate paying the premiums, it's quite possibly the best thing that could happen because all of a sudden, those that were blocking US oil speculation are beginning to ease up a bit. It's harder to bitch and moan, when doing so becomes much more costly.
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 4:41 PM
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In reply to: there is easily enough oil to last centuries.
This is a new one to me. The consensus opinion in the energies industry is the peak is near (if it hasn't already happened) and consumption will continue to grow, thereby escalating the pace at which remaining supplies are used up.
How about a link to a reputable source in support of your view. :wink:
BTW I'm well aware of untapped resources out in the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. While huge, they have little significance in the long term, big picture.
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karlbaba
Jul 26, 2005, 4:56 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: Tim, Please explain why NY Crude (which was $10.35/barrel in late '98) has recently been as high as $62.50/barrel. I can't, nor can anyone other than those that control the tap........... It isn't however about production peaks, because there is easily enough oil to last centuries. The issue at hand is one of supply & demand... Those with the supply, can demand! Our own oil fields can produce the quantities that we need, and OPEC knows this, but since we've just begun the 10 year process of speculating/drilling/piping/etc, OPEC knows that they have to make hay while the sun is still shinning! In reality, as much as we all hate paying the premiums, it's quite possibly the best thing that could happen because all of a sudden, those that were blocking US oil speculation are beginning to ease up a bit. It's harder to b---- and moan, when doing so becomes much more costly.
This is all BS and nobody remotely familiar with the situation believes it. Even the big oil companies deny it openly. Exxon themselves has predicted a peaking of non-opec oil production within 5 years!! Chevron has just started a multi-million ad campaign on the subject and put up a related website. http://www.willyoujoinus.com/
The end of cheap oil is at hand. Get used to it. US oil production peaked in 1970 and it wasnt' because wacky environmentalist lefties closed off the pumps. The oil men themselves like Hubbard predicted it.
Yes my post speculated about the future. That's what governments do when they make their stategic plans. Oil is about to run behind demand. If your read the news, India, China, Japan, and everybody with industry and money is positioning themselves to assure a supply when it becomes hard to get. It's not rocket science, when the oil companies are themselves calling the end of cheap oil to be here, to see how Iraq would be destined to be rich.
Fight facts with facts if you can
Peace
karl
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karlbaba
Jul 26, 2005, 5:03 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: But still, it looks like you debunked all my points with your post. :roll: Your post had a whole lot of conjecture about future, that is currently just as defensable as it is unprovable. As far as looking at the present, this little nugget gave me a chuckle: In reply to: It's complicated, but if the world switched to buying oil with Euros, our economy would go down hard in flames. Saddam was threatening to sell oil for Euros. Every other country that has tended that way has also been threatened with intervention. Invading Iraq made the point about the price of rebellion. Are you familiar with arbitrage?
I'm not familiar with how arbitrage changes the fact that the US sells it's treasury debt in dollars, and that the central banks in other countries need dollars to buy oil. If oil were sold in Euros, our fiat money printing scam would be damaged. I could be wrong but I'd love an explanation. Read, or at least, examine the last half, of my first link for clarity
PEace
karl
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 5:25 PM
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I can neither agree nor disagree with anything that has been stated.
If you look at why a loaf of bread costs upwards of $2.00 today, as opposed to .89 in 1999 or even .51 in 1980... Then examine how and my CRP can be allowed to exist (let alone be a gov program), we'll quickly realize that not only is there plenty of wheat, there is too much. There is also too much corn and beans, yet starvation and poverty are on the rise. What really sucks though, is when natural disasters which cannot be predicted, completely screw up the supply & demand ratios that drive the CRP programs in the first place. As soon as the crop reserves are tapped, the prices skyrocket and the entire cost of creating that loaf of bread goes up.
Don't be so jaded as to only look within the petrochemical industries, because this same issue is much broader than one is led to believe, and it's happening on a global scale with the international trade agreements.
Growing up in small farm communities, I've seen too many families being wiped out because of this, time and time again...
Next time you buy a loaf of bread, ask yourselves why farmers are being paid to not plant their fields, then apply this logic to other concerns.
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 6:01 PM
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Tim,
Comparing a renewable resource to a finite resource is a bad analogy
Karl,
Tell me more about the Euro. From what I hear, it continues to lose favor among member countries.
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 6:11 PM
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In reply to: Tim, Comparing a renewable resource to a finite resource is a bad analogy. |
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 6:25 PM
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I get your point. It's one that's not applicable to the long range oil situation.
You're talking about manipulating intermediate term cycles. Karl and I are talking about the era of petroleum consumption running its course.
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 6:58 PM
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That's just it, it won't run it's course!!! There's a hell of a lot of oil out there that's yet to be tapped, and at the same time, we're exploring new fuel sources.
In addition to deisel, cruise ships run on garbage, yes GARBAGE! They waste nothing, use everything, and are actually much more efficient in doing so.
We have Hydrogen cells being tested in just about every possible manner, and some have actually made it to the market... This is just the beginning.
Sure, we're a bit slower than we should be, but again, politiKs and payoff schemes are more to blame than anything else. For example, we know that Ethanol is a cleaner more viable alternative to gasoline, yet the automakers don't like the fact that engines will last longer with them, which decreases sales of parts as well as new vehicles.
Soybeans, hemp & corn are just a few of the "here and now" viable alternative fuel sources, but there are billions of dollars being paid out to keep them from becoming a reality... As with just about everything else, you simply need to follow the $$$ trail. :idea:
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 7:12 PM
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In reply to: That's just it, it won't run it's course!!! There's a hell of a lot of oil out there that's yet to be tapped, and at the same time, we're exploring new fuel sources.
Just cuz' you say so doesn't make it true. Show me a report from a major oil company or energy group that says we're not running out of oil resources.
Talking about alternative sources is just a distraction. But if you're going to talk about alternative sources, do so in real world terms... such as:
- What would it take to produce enough ethanol to handle the annual gasoline consumption in the US? Acres planted? Distillation?
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tgreene
Jul 26, 2005, 7:24 PM
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With farmers being paid NOT to plant these crops, I think the answer is probably closewr than one might think!
If you want absolutes (and I know you do), try contacting either Purdue University, Indiana University, Illiniois University, Iowa State University or Ohio State University... They all have world reknowed Ag Research Centers that are devoted to this very thing, and would be a great source of information.
I grew up just off Purdue campus, and know that this research has been a priority for 30+ years!
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thorne
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Jul 26, 2005, 7:27 PM
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No comment on the endless supply of oil reserves???
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bmxer
Jul 27, 2005, 11:01 AM
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Here in Armenia I saw something I had never seen or heard of before in my life. When they say I'm gonna get gas, they literally mean gas (not petrol/gasoline). My dad said it's "natural gas" but he could'nt think of the English word for it. Maybe it is Ehtenol. But it's half the price of gasoline.
Taxis use it to save money. So do alot of people and buses and stuff for the same reason.
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dookie
Jul 27, 2005, 1:39 PM
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In reply to: Show me a report from a major oil company or energy group that says we're not running out of oil resources. |
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blondgecko
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Jul 27, 2005, 11:14 PM
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In reply to: Here in Armenia I saw something I had never seen or heard of before in my life. When they say I'm gonna get gas, they literally mean gas (not petrol/gasoline). My dad said it's "natural gas" but he could'nt think of the English word for it. Maybe it is Ehtenol. But it's half the price of gasoline. Taxis use it to save money. So do alot of people and buses and stuff for the same reason.
:shock: :shock: :shock:
You mean you guys in the states haven't even heard of natural gas-powered vehicles? Wow. :? So what do you do with the gas that comes off your oil wells? Just flare it off?
Natural gas is just that - a gaseous mixture (mostly methane and ethane, I believe) that exists in enormous quantities above most oil wells. It used to be that this was simply flared off as waste. These days (at least in less short-sighted countries) it is collected, liquefied and used as a very clean (low sulphur and low particulate generation) fuel. Here in Brisbane all the buses, and many cars run on it. Cars converted over to LPG cost a little over half as much to run, albeit with somewhat less grunt than on petrol.
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bill
Jul 27, 2005, 11:36 PM
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In reply to: :shock: :shock: :shock: You mean you guys in the states haven't even heard of natural gas-powered vehicles? Wow. :? So what do you do with the gas that comes off your oil wells? Just flare it off? Natural gas is just that - a gaseous mixture (mostly methane and ethane, I believe) that exists in enormous quantities above most oil wells. It used to be that this was simply flared off as waste. These days (at least in less short-sighted countries) it is collected, liquefied and used as a very clean (low sulphur and low particulate generation) fuel. Here in Brisbane all the buses, and many cars run on it. Cars converted over to LPG cost a little over half as much to run, albeit with somewhat less grunt than on petrol.
We have natural gas buses and private vehicles in the US.
Perhaps were not as "short sighted" as you believe. :roll:
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newbierockstar
Jul 27, 2005, 11:58 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: Here in Armenia I saw something..... You mean you guys in the states haven't even heard of natural gas-powered vehicles? Perhaps were not as "short sighted" as you believe. :roll:
Or perhaps he just needs glasses.... :lol:
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kachoong
Jul 28, 2005, 12:43 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: Last time I checked, tankers weren't being flown in from Uranus! Well they certainly aren`t being flown in from my anus. :shock: :wink: :lol: |
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bobd1953
Jul 28, 2005, 12:47 AM
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In reply to: One only needs to weigh the difference between the number of casualities since the onset of war, as opposed to the numbers Saddam inflicted upon his own people during "peace time"... War is an ugly business, but in situations such as Iraq, it's for the greater good to rid the world of a tyrant. I guess some could surmise that Hitler should have been left unchecked as well...................... Confused
Phil- one only need to know that the US embraced Saddam back in the mid-80s and sold him weapons to boot.
We knew about the killings back then and did little to nothing about it.
This war was started by US on the premise of WMD. There are no weapons.
So my question to you is: Why now and for what reasons?
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blondgecko
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Jul 28, 2005, 1:07 AM
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In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: In reply to: Here in Armenia I saw something..... You mean you guys in the states haven't even heard of natural gas-powered vehicles? Perhaps were not as "short sighted" as you believe. :roll: Or perhaps he just needs glasses.... :lol:
:oops:
Too early in the morning, I guess.
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