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Arrogant_Bastard
Mar 16, 2011, 9:28 PM
Post #126 of 144
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dscow1980 wrote: And since you have sooooo much time on your hands and since you are a self proclaimed geniuous why don't we switch from being enemies to partners.
I just gave you an idea for what is sure to be a best selling autobiography, what more do you want?
dscow1980 wrote: Maybe you can offer some sort of suggestion as to how I could come up with an alternative hypothesis that woudl give me an accurate number of the percentage of climbers who have been climbing more than two years that have successfully lead a 5.12.
Ok fine. See that search bar on the upper right with a dropbox next to it? If you select 'users' and then put an asterisk in the search box you'll get every user on this site. Looks like there's over 100,000. Of course, half of those are just Caughtinsides troll accounts. You have to come up with an unbiased, yet reasonable way of finding 100 users that have entered climbs on their database for 2 years. If you could program it'd be easier, but you can sort through by brute force. Keep a tally of who lead a .12a or above in their first two years - which the graph will tell you.
Going through the forums would probably get you 100 users that entered climbs on the database faster, but that could be argued to be biased - being the same douchebags that answered your survey to begin with. Alternately, you could go through the routes database to find users, as people marking tics will more likely have 2 years of routes recorded. Of course, you could just use the 100+ results you gained through this site and MP, do your survey, retain your A, get on with your life, and stop taking everything so fucking seriously.
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 9:29 PM
Post #127 of 144
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gmggg wrote: dscow1980 wrote: Well you may know what a null hypothesis is but the person that asked me what I meant by that obviously didn't. I have taken a sample now from my population to get an idea about the population and make a general statement. This is the null hypothesis... I am seriously done explaining this to everyone..... How do you delete a forum on RC.com, this is a waste of my time. To those that were helpful and just answered the questions, thank you. To everyone else who felt like they needed to give their unwanted opinions and advise, you were not helpful at all and I wish you would just find something better to do with your time. I, and many others, both gave you unwanted advise[sic] and answered the questions. Where does that leave us? And you still haven't answered my question. How is it that you are both a veteran and 14 years old?
Probably born in 1980.
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chilli
Mar 16, 2011, 9:31 PM
Post #128 of 144
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shoo wrote: By my count, according to this survey, 61% of climbers have climbed 5.12 or above. . . . . . . . . . BAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
as i'm sure you know, the simple explanation is that this survey inherently has an obvious response bias. So aside from a few honorable people, those who can't brag didn't post...
...or people are lying.
not sure i have enough faith in people to chose one or the other.
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gmggg
Mar 16, 2011, 9:33 PM
Post #129 of 144
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: gmggg wrote: dscow1980 wrote: Well you may know what a null hypothesis is but the person that asked me what I meant by that obviously didn't. I have taken a sample now from my population to get an idea about the population and make a general statement. This is the null hypothesis... I am seriously done explaining this to everyone..... How do you delete a forum on RC.com, this is a waste of my time. To those that were helpful and just answered the questions, thank you. To everyone else who felt like they needed to give their unwanted opinions and advise, you were not helpful at all and I wish you would just find something better to do with your time. I, and many others, both gave you unwanted advise[sic] and answered the questions. Where does that leave us? And you still haven't answered my question. How is it that you are both a veteran and 14 years old? Probably born in 1980.
I saw that. I was just sure that we were dealing with someone going through the pangs of puberty while in the midst of a high school science class. I mean the grammar, overreactions, and general knowledge of the world all support that theory, right?
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gmggg
Mar 16, 2011, 9:34 PM
Post #130 of 144
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chilli wrote: shoo wrote: By my count, according to this survey, 61% of climbers have climbed 5.12 or above. . . . . . . . . . BAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!! as i'm sure you know, the simple explanation is that this survey inherently has an obvious response bias. So aside from a few honorable people, those who can't brag didn't post... ...or people are lying. not sure i have enough faith in people to chose one or the other.
Why can't it be both?
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 9:37 PM
Post #131 of 144
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gmggg wrote: dscow1980 wrote: Oh I see so he only asked me so that he could be an asshole and correct me. Sounds like a great guy, or possibly a guy who has some insecurities and feels it is neccassary to come online and give people shit. My guess is none of you would have the balls to say any of this to my face, but then again isn't that why people like you hang out in places like this. This is the last post you will see from me, I'm getting back to living my life to fullest. Anyone taking bets? I've got $20.
Odds?
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 9:42 PM
Post #132 of 144
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gmggg wrote: Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: gmggg wrote: dscow1980 wrote: Well you may know what a null hypothesis is but the person that asked me what I meant by that obviously didn't. I have taken a sample now from my population to get an idea about the population and make a general statement. This is the null hypothesis... I am seriously done explaining this to everyone..... How do you delete a forum on RC.com, this is a waste of my time. To those that were helpful and just answered the questions, thank you. To everyone else who felt like they needed to give their unwanted opinions and advise, you were not helpful at all and I wish you would just find something better to do with your time. I, and many others, both gave you unwanted advise[sic] and answered the questions. Where does that leave us? And you still haven't answered my question. How is it that you are both a veteran and 14 years old? Probably born in 1980. I saw that. I was just sure that we were dealing with someone going through the pangs of puberty while in the midst of a high school science class. I mean the grammar, overreactions, and general knowledge of the world all support that theory, right?
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sp115
Mar 16, 2011, 9:43 PM
Post #133 of 144
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Registered: Apr 17, 2007
Posts: 515
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: gmggg wrote: dscow1980 wrote: Oh I see so he only asked me so that he could be an asshole and correct me. Sounds like a great guy, or possibly a guy who has some insecurities and feels it is neccassary to come online and give people shit. My guess is none of you would have the balls to say any of this to my face, but then again isn't that why people like you hang out in places like this. This is the last post you will see from me, I'm getting back to living my life to fullest. Anyone taking bets? I've got $20. Odds?
(shhhhh - he's logged on right now, I don't think he's quite done yet...)
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Rora
Mar 16, 2011, 10:44 PM
Post #134 of 144
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ok, no i havent climbed a 12 on lead.
yes, i do lead climb. but indoors only, and with a coach. Im technically too young to get my lead card and lead by myself. 
no, i havent been leading for more than 2 years, i actually started only about a month ago.
nope, i havent ever lead a 12. dont climb many 12s in general. :P
hardest route i ever lead... 11b. Indoors. yesterday.
also... im only 13 years old.
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thomasribiere
Mar 16, 2011, 11:02 PM
Post #135 of 144
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Question One. Do you lead climb? (trad or sport)
Y (sport).
Question Two. Have you been lead climbing for more than two years?
Y
Question Three. Have you ever lead a 5.12? (indoor or gym)
Y (only a couple of times, outdoor). But couldn't RP them anyway.
Question Four. What is the hardest route you have ever lead?
Both were 5.12a.
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Arrogant_Bastard
Mar 16, 2011, 11:10 PM
Post #136 of 144
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thomasribiere wrote: Question One. Do you lead climb? (trad or sport) Y (sport). Question Two. Have you been lead climbing for more than two years? Y Question Three. Have you ever lead a 5.12? (indoor or gym) Y (only a couple of times, outdoor). But couldn't RP them anyway. Question Four. What is the hardest route you have ever lead? Both were 5.12a.7a+ |
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lena_chita
Moderator
Mar 16, 2011, 11:20 PM
Post #137 of 144
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Posts: 6087
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camhead wrote: lena_chita wrote: dscow1980 wrote: How do you delete a forum on RC.com, this is a waste of my time. You can't delete a forum. Luckily... Stealing his intellectual property? Not two weeks on the job and you're already wearing the jackboots nicely, FACIST!
What can I say... power corrupts! delete, delete, delete!
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LostinMaine
Mar 17, 2011, 1:51 AM
Post #138 of 144
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Registered: May 8, 2007
Posts: 539
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dscow1980 wrote: A null hypothesis, as in null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is a statement to be tested, which has no change, no effect, or no difference. The null hypothesis is assumed true until evidence indicates otherwise. The alternative hypothesis is a statement that I can find evidence to support. The idea is I will compare one to the other. This survey has been an experiement in configuring a null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis will be determined after collecting sufficent evidence to support it. So go ahead, pick it apart..... I know that is what you will do but I took that right out of my textbook so that you cannot critisize me, it is from the text.
I'm hoping you haven't really left yet. Also realize that not all criticism is bad. If you sit back, relax, and think about what JT512 really is asking, you will see he is actually trying to help you. His simple question (which is not that simple) is an important one.
I'm curious, could you state the following you hope to address with your survey:
The goal of your "research" is:
The objective(s) of your research question is (are):
Your testable hypothesis is:
Your statistical design is:
Your intended analysis method is:
Every one of these questions should be known before you make your survey. I guess if this is just for an intro probs and stats class, you might be able to get away without knowing them...
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dscow1980
Mar 17, 2011, 3:36 AM
Post #139 of 144
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Registered: Mar 15, 2011
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Thank you for your help, I honestly feel like you are the first person who has shown an actual interest in helping me. You know I actual do not know the answers to all of these questions but before I put together another survey I will definitely keep those questions in mind. You see, this project is not due for another month. At this stage of the project we only needed to establish a null hypothesis and simply pick out our research objective. My objective is to determine the percentage of climbers, who have been climbing more than two years, who have climbed a 5.12, either in the gym or outdoors. Either is fine. Either sport or trad, if outdoors, is fine. Some of the things I have not considered are what I mean by "climb" it exactly. Apparently that can mean several things, anywhere from redpointing, to hangdogging, to whatever else. To be honest I don't know all the climbing jargon so when people talk in climbing lingo I have no idea what they are talking about. I suppose if you have lead a 5.12, either in the gym or outdoors (sport or trad) even if you have had a couple breaks (either do to physical exhaustion or mentally trying to pump yourself up for the next 10 feet) I would count that. I wasn't clear in my first survey what counts and what doesn't. This is an interesting topic to me additionally because I am curious to know where I am at in my climbing performance compared to how long I have climbed. This is important to me not for bragging rights but beacuse climbing is a passion of mine and if I am towards the back of the pack, comparatively, I want to know so that I can work harder to improve. Additionally it would help me in setting realistic goals to shoot for in regards to climbing.
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jt512
Mar 17, 2011, 3:42 AM
Post #140 of 144
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dscow1980 wrote: At this stage of the project we only needed to establish a null hypothesis and simply pick out our research objective. My objective is to determine the percentage of climbers, who have been climbing more than two years, who have climbed a 5.12, either in the gym or outdoors.
Your objective, as stated, is an estimation problem, not a testable hypothesis. I still don't understand why you are doing a survey to "establish a null hypothesis." Perhaps the reason you feel you need to do research to establish a null hypothesis is that you are trying to force an estimation problem into a hypothesis testing framework.
Jay
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dscow1980
Mar 17, 2011, 3:46 AM
Post #141 of 144
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Actually Jay it was in the instructions given to me by my instructor. It said we could research it online and come up with a null hypothesis or we could take a sample of 10 people from our population to establish a null hypothesis. You have to understand this is an intro to stats class taught at a community college to people who mostly hope to get into nursing school or the equivalent. It is by no means a graduate level course or anything or the like.
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dscow1980
Mar 17, 2011, 3:51 AM
Post #142 of 144
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Although I will say I have certainly learned a lot about statistics today. I actually think it is an interesting topic.
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jt512
Mar 17, 2011, 4:35 AM
Post #143 of 144
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dscow1980 wrote: Actually Jay it was in the instructions given to me by my instructor. It said we could research it online and come up with a null hypothesis or we could take a sample of 10 people from our population to establish a null hypothesis. You have to understand this is an intro to stats class taught at a community college to people who mostly hope to get into nursing school or the equivalent. It is by no means a graduate level course or anything or the like.
Well, I'm still confused as to how a survey leads to a null hypothesis, or why anyone would "establish" a null hypothesis in the first place. It is generally the alternative hypothesis that we are interested in. That's why the alternative name for the alternative hypothesis is the research hypothesis. The null hypothesis is kind of just an artifact of classical hypothesis testing: we try to "prove" the alternative hypothesis by showing that the data are inconsistent with the null hypothesis (which is pretty fucked up, but that's another story).
Now, I can see how a survey can lead to an alternative hypothesis; that is, a research question we want to pursue. The process of using weak (but cheap) study designs (perhaps like an informal internet survey) to generate "alternative" hypotheses to be tested using more rigorous methods is routine in scientific research. For example, we might use a survey that asks people about their dietary habits and whether they have ever had a heart attack, to see if there are any correlations between specific dietary factors and heart disease. Based on the results, we might formulate a hypothesis that a certain food group is protective of heart disease, and test that hypothesis in a rigorous manner, say, a controlled clinical trial, in which we randomize subjects to two study diets: one high in the food group and one low. We could follow the subjects for, say, five years, and then statistically test whether there was a significant difference in heart attack rates between the two groups.
But notice that in the above example it is the alternative hypothesis that motivated the research, not the null hypothesis. So, this is why I'm confused about why your instructor would suggest doing a preliminary survey to formulate a null hypothesis rather than an "alternative" hypothesis (or even why (or how) you would research a null hypothesis on the internet).
Jay
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LostinMaine
Mar 17, 2011, 11:08 AM
Post #144 of 144
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dscow1980 wrote: You know I actual do not know the answers to all of these questions but before I put together another survey I will definitely keep those questions in mind.
Don't feel bad. Most people who start writing a Master's thesis can't answer them the first time they are asked, either. However, if you really want to understand statistics (not just ace a stats course), everything you do should relate back to these questions.
In reply to: At this stage of the project we only needed to establish a null hypothesis and simply pick out our research objective. My objective is to determine the percentage of climbers, who have been climbing more than two years, who have climbed a 5.12, either in the gym or outdoors.
I guess what confuses me is whether you are interested in climbers who climb 5.12 or the time it required to climb 5.12 from those who have reached that threshold. Why are you not interested in sub 2-year climbers?
Try something like this...
Ho: There is no lead grade difference between "new climbers" (defined as less than 2 years on the rock) and "veteran climbers" (defined as greater than 2 years on the rock).
Ha: Veteran climbers have led harder routes than new climbers
Be cautious, though, that how your phrase the null and alternative force you into a specific type of analysis. In this case, I might expect to perform a 1-tailed t-test between two climbing populations where I expect the difference to lie on only one side of the population mean.
In reply to: This is an interesting topic to me additionally because I am curious to know where I am at in my climbing performance compared to how long I have climbed.
This is a percentile question rather than a testable hypothesis, as Jay mentioned.
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