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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 10:46 PM
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So on another thread there was discussion on how to estimate the percentage of climbers who climb 5.12 and above and with all ya alls help here its how I would like to crack that nut. Please list the number of climbers you know and then the number of them that climb greater than 5.12.
Clarifications:
"Known" is not in the conjugal sense, nor is it the virtual sense. If you find your count going too high, limit yourself by time. Include yourself in the count, but you need not say what you climb.
"Climber" is defined by someone who owns a climbing rope. Spouses, crew members, and posse count.
"5.12" is lead outdoors. You need not have witnessed the climb, this is your estimation of their ability.
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coastal_climber
Mar 16, 2011, 10:58 PM
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Whats the fascination with 5.12?
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 11:01 PM
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coastal_climber wrote: Whats the fascination with 5.12?
As a level for me none really. I'm just trying to solve the question in that other thread.
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lena_chita
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Mar 16, 2011, 11:16 PM
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I thought these calculations have been done (by better means than yours).
If I recall correctly, either climbing or Rock and Ice did a poll like that a couple of year ago, and found that only ~25% of respondents (people who subscribed to the magazine and responded) climbed above 5.10. By extrapolating from that, I will say that the percentage of people who climb >5.12 is ~5%.
But if I look at people I personally know... let's see. If I take 107 climbers who are on my facebook friends list, 56 of them climb at least 5.12.
My verdict is, your poll would be hopelessly skewed, too, because people tend to associate with other of similar ability. 5.12+ climbers are more likely to personally know more than a 'fair' share of other 5.12+ climbers, so it wouldn't be representative...
(This post was edited by lena_chita on Mar 16, 2011, 11:18 PM)
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 16, 2011, 11:44 PM
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lena_chita wrote: I thought these calculations have been done (by better means than yours). If I recall correctly, either climbing or Rock and Ice did a poll like that a couple of year ago, and found that only ~25% of respondents (people who subscribed to the magazine and responded) climbed above 5.10. By extrapolating from that, I will say that the percentage of people who climb >5.12 is ~5%.
One of the reasons I set some of the criteria above is that by saying "own a rope" is a line to call someone who climbs a "climber". Now this is an arbitrary point and one could easily say that unless you climb 5.10 (or other number) you aren't a climber.
lena_chita wrote: My verdict is, your poll would be hopelessly skewed, too, because people tend to associate with other of similar ability. 5.12+ climbers are more likely to personally know more than a 'fair' share of other 5.12+ climbers, so it wouldn't be representative...
Absolutely, better climbers will associate with better climbers, but by removing the "spray" aspect I was hoping that more people would participate. I still expect that the count will be high, in part due to the self selecting nature of the site, let alone people who would degrade themselves to reply to this thread.
Oh, and your stalker has gone to 5 stars away from 1. (Either that or someone really quickly loved your post).
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sp115
Mar 17, 2011, 12:14 AM
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: ...better climbers will associate with better climbers, but by removing the "spray" aspect I was hoping that more people would participate. I still expect that the count will be high, in part due to the self selecting nature of the site, let alone people who would degrade themselves to reply to this thread.
You had me at "spray".
Out of all of the climbers I know, let's say that's 60 or so people, there have been exactly 4 that have ever led 5.12 sport. And out of those 4 only 2 of then ever led 5.12 trad.
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Bag11s
Mar 17, 2011, 12:20 AM
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I agree with Lena. About half the climbers I know climb 5.12. However, I do see way more people at the crag who I don't know that don't.
(This post was edited by Bag11s on Mar 17, 2011, 12:21 AM)
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guangzhou
Mar 17, 2011, 12:27 AM
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Can you clarify your definition of climbing 5.12.
Consistently on-sight
Red-point
Trad and sport
I know and meets lots of climbers who red point 5.12 here and there, but I don't meet as many who are what I consider 5.12 climbers.
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 17, 2011, 12:27 AM
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Bag11s wrote: I agree with Lena. About half the climbers I know climb 5.12. However, I do see way more people at the crag who I don't know that don't.
Let the other people there post about their friends. 50% of how many?
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Bag11s
Mar 17, 2011, 12:40 AM
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50% of 16 climbers that I know pretty well.
Some can on sight 5.12 often, some occasionally, some red point most commonly after working the route (like me +/- (25) 12a through 12c routes in 13 years.)
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 17, 2011, 12:41 AM
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guangzhou wrote: Can you clarify your definition of climbing 5.12. Consistently on-sight Red-point Trad and sport I know and meets lots of climbers who red point 5.12 here and there, but I don't meet as many who are what I consider 5.12 climbers.
For the purposes here, lets go with the lower definition. Someone who can red point a 5.12.
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Rudmin
Mar 17, 2011, 12:48 AM
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I think you need to take a stats 101 class or have a stab at solving a few other Fermi problems first. Try starting with the number of piano tuners in New York City.
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guangzhou
Mar 17, 2011, 12:59 AM
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: guangzhou wrote: Can you clarify your definition of climbing 5.12. Consistently on-sight Red-point Trad and sport I know and meets lots of climbers who red point 5.12 here and there, but I don't meet as many who are what I consider 5.12 climbers. For the purposes here, lets go with the lower definition. Someone who can red point a 5.12.
In that case, a lot of climbers I see at sport climbing areas can.
Of course, in Asia I notice that Europeans climb 5.12 more consistent than American climbers.
In America, 5.12 seems to be some-type of mental barrier, but in Europe, the barrier seems to be 5.13.
Just an observation.
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lena_chita
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Mar 17, 2011, 1:09 AM
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: lena_chita wrote: I thought these calculations have been done (by better means than yours). If I recall correctly, either climbing or Rock and Ice did a poll like that a couple of year ago, and found that only ~25% of respondents (people who subscribed to the magazine and responded) climbed above 5.10. By extrapolating from that, I will say that the percentage of people who climb >5.12 is ~5%. One of the reasons I set some of the criteria above is that by saying "own a rope" is a line to call someone who climbs a "climber". Now this is an arbitrary point and one could easily say that unless you climb 5.10 (or other number) you aren't a climber.
Yeah, it is an age-old debate of how to define a climber. You know one when you meet one, but it is like pornography, hard to define.
You specifically focused on roped climbing, so my count of "people who climb 5.12" excluded some really strong guys who are, definitely, climbers, and are definitely capable of climbing 5.12 and well beyond, but prefer to boulder and do so in V7-V8+ range.
On the other hand, the count it included people who have ropes, but only go out twice a year...
Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: lena_chita wrote: My verdict is, your poll would be hopelessly skewed, too, because people tend to associate with other of similar ability. 5.12+ climbers are more likely to personally know more than a 'fair' share of other 5.12+ climbers, so it wouldn't be representative... Absolutely, better climbers will associate with better climbers, but by removing the "spray" aspect I was hoping that more people would participate. I still expect that the count will be high, in part due to the self selecting nature of the site, let alone people who would degrade themselves to reply to this thread.
Nah, not going to work. You can already see yet another bias, just from couple replies. People who climb 5.12+ are also likely to be climbing for longer time, and/or be more active in terms of going out and climbing more frequently, so they are more likely to know more climbers overall.
And combined with "they are more likely to know stronger climbers" bias it will skew things even more.
Toast_in_the_Machine wrote: Oh, and your stalker has gone to 5 stars away from 1. (Either that or someone really quickly loved your post).
Give it until midday tomorrow. 1-starers will come. Of course, there is hope that they might get tired of it, eventually.
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socalclimber
Mar 17, 2011, 3:14 AM
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By 5.12, you must mean sport climbers. By that measure there are tons.
By 5.12 trad all around bad ass clmbers, there aren't that many.
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spikeddem
Mar 17, 2011, 3:44 AM
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lena_chita wrote: My verdict is, your poll would be hopelessly skewed, too, because people tend to associate with other of similar ability. 5.12+ climbers are more likely to personally know more than a 'fair' share of other 5.12+ climbers, so it wouldn't be representative...
The same is true for sub-5.12. Birds of a feather, Lena!
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lena_chita
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Mar 17, 2011, 11:50 AM
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spikeddem wrote: lena_chita wrote: My verdict is, your poll would be hopelessly skewed, too, because people tend to associate with other of similar ability. 5.12+ climbers are more likely to personally know more than a 'fair' share of other 5.12+ climbers, so it wouldn't be representative... The same is true for sub-5.12. Birds of a feather, Lena!
You missed the other part of what I said. People climbing harder grades generally have been climbing longer and/or are going climbing more frequently, and/or are more likely to have climbed at multiple different areas over the period of their climbing time. Therefore, they also generally know more climbers overall than people who climb lower grades.
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rtwilli4
Mar 17, 2011, 11:57 AM
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You're formula sounds sexier but it s no better in determining how many people can climb 5.12. Off the top of my head I'd say that nearly 50% of the climbers that I know (outside of those that I've guided for work) have red-pointed 5.12. At least half of them (so 20 to 25% overall) do it very consistently.
I doubt that is a true representation of the rock climbing public.
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Toast_in_the_Machine
Mar 17, 2011, 12:05 PM
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rtwilli4 wrote: You're formula sounds sexier but it s no better in determining how many people can climb 5.12. Off the top of my head I'd say that nearly 50% of the climbers that I know (outside of those that I've guided for work) have red-pointed 5.12. At least half of them (so 20 to 25% overall) do it very consistently. I doubt that is a true representation of the rock climbing public.
50% of how many climbers?
Each person will not be a true representation of the rock climbing public. That its to be expected. What is hoped its that the replies represent the rock climbing public and then the aggregate of the replies is representative.
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camhead
Mar 17, 2011, 12:40 PM
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One other thing that makes this approach so difficult is overlap. The climbing community is very small. I would be willing to bet that of all the 5.12 climbers that I and Lena know, we have at least 20 in common.
I think that the best way to determine this would be to take a random sample of people who have bought a standard piece of equipment in the last year (most likely a rope), and ask what their highest redpoint was.
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no_email_entered
Mar 17, 2011, 12:51 PM
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i don't know any climbers, but they all climb 5.12+
[so take 5.12 and divide by zero and youll get the amount of awesomness of your estimation skillage]
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rtwilli4
Mar 17, 2011, 12:54 PM
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For a large part of 2008, 09 and 10 I was either living and working at a climbing destination or living in my truck, road tripping. Off the top of my head I could think of 39 out of 90 people who have red-pointed 5.12. I planned to stop at 50 but I kept thinking of more people and the ratio stayed about the same. I have either climbed with these people, or at least watched them climb.
So that's 39/90 - 43% that have climbed 5.12. Most of them will red-point a new 5.12 in 10 tries or less.
FWIW, a majority of the 90 people climb both sport and trad. A large majority of the 39 who climb 5.12 climb both sport and trad and a majority of the 51 who do not climb 5.12 climb only sport.
Of the 10 people that I would call my climbing partners, 4 have red-pointed 5.12 and two have on-sighted 5.12.
Since I've moved to London (7 weeks ago), I've only climbed indoors. I've climbed with roughly 10 people and 3 or them climb 5.12. Ad that to the 90 people and you have 42/100.
R&I had a pretty good breakdown in their health issue a few months back. I think I quoted it on here.
EDITED to add that camhead is correct in saying that there is overlap. I forgot to add him and johnL (angry) but I have met both of them and they both climb 5.12. They would both be in lena's group of 5.12 climbers as well.
(This post was edited by rtwilli4 on Mar 17, 2011, 12:59 PM)
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csproul
Mar 17, 2011, 1:34 PM
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I guess I am at the other end of the spectrum as compared with several of the posters here. I "know" at least upwards of 50 climbers (I stopped trying to think of more at ~50). Many of them are very competent 5.10/5.11 trad climbers. I can only think of ~4 that I know of that have climbed 5.12. I suspect that there might be another ~4 in that list that have climbed 5.12, but I have never seen it or heard about it happening, I just suspect that they are capable of it.
(This post was edited by csproul on Mar 17, 2011, 1:42 PM)
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